[19][20] On the other hand, Clinton would have had to win the popular vote by at least 3 points in order to win the Electoral College, as Trump, the Republican nominee, won the tipping-point state of Wisconsin by less than 1 percent. The Democrats cannot win in 2020 without reducing the victory margin among this demographic group, especially in the six key swing states. Even in presidential election years, voters may split presidential and gubernatorial tickets.

If they vote at all, more 2016 Libertarian/Johnson voters may be likelier to go to Trump than to the Democrat. 1) Flip the U.S. Senate seat currently held by John Cornyn. Here are the states everyone is 99.9% positive about, that will vote Liberal or Conservative unless the Democrats nominate Michael Myers or the Republicans nuke Texas. The portion of the American electorate made up of swing voters ranges from about a quarter to a third between presidential elections, according to the Pew Research Center. — While these states are up for grabs in 2020, there are signs that these states have been becoming more hospitable to Republicans over the past couple of decades. But after the searing experience of 2016, when Trump unexpectedly took Wisconsin by fewer than 23,000 votes, every expectation is that the state will be a nail-biter again in November. The states most often described as being up in the air or ones that could side with either a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate are: Texas is mentioned as a possible swing state in the 2020 presidential election. By using ThoughtCo, you accept our, How the US Electoral College System Works, Why Puerto Rico Matters in the US Presidential Election, Importance of the US Presidential Primaries, Presidents Elected Without Winning the Popular Vote, How Political Party Convention Delegates are Chosen. Swing States. RT @CitizenActionIL: A reminder: the U.S. has 7.2 million people with COVID-19. 2020 Battleground States: Where Democrats Must Fight Hard To Oust Trump | The Austin Editor, 15 Ways You Can Help Get More People Registered to Vote, 2 Sleeper Senate Races You Should Be Paying Attention To. He's running against MJ Hegar. More than a dozen states are considered swing states, and most of them hold a large number of electoral votes and are considered major prizes in presidential elections. In past electoral results, Republican candidates would have expected to easily win most of the mountain states and Great Plains, such as Idaho, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Montana, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska, most of the South, including Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee and South Carolina, as well as Alaska. Trump won the 2016 election by unexpectedly carrying Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

It was given this name due to the ruddy silt that this river obtains from the surrounding mountains. 1) Flip the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Joni Ernst. In the swing states that matter, it is trench warfare: Biden’s advantage, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, is within the margin of error in half of the eight states. Postcards to Swing States. 2008 hatte Obama in den aufgeführten Wechselstaaten gewonnen, dieses Mal wird es … Home › Elections › 15 Key Swing States in 2020. Donald Trump's fate is in the hands of these major Electoral College votes. Both of these states have relatively few electoral votes – a total of 4 and 5, respectively. Similarly, Barack Obama's narrow victory in Indiana in the 2008 election inaccurately portrays its status as a battleground. Is Mark Zuckerberg a Democrat or a Republican? She’s white, college-educated, unaffiliated and moved to a close-in suburb of Charlotte or Raleigh in the last decade or two — and as Election Day looms, she’s still making up her mind. Beyond that, we’ll see that it is important to note whether these third-party or independent candidates were liberal or conservative leaning. With the six states so closely divided between the parties, either party could win them in 2020. Who wins will depend on the candidates, the campaign quality, and external circumstances like the economy and any potential major war. What is a swing state? Follow us on Twitter. The term can also be used to describe a state whose electoral votes have a high probability of being the deciding factor in a presidential election. Neither Maine, which is generally considered a Democratic-leaning state, nor Nebraska, typically thought to be safely Republican, would become battlegrounds in the event of a close national race.